Publications

Werner, Johannes, and Martin P. Tingley. Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian Hierarchical reconstruction model. Climate of the past, 2015.

Tierney, Jessica E. and Martin P. Tingley. A TEX86 surface sediment database and extended Bayesian calibration. Scientific Data, 2015.

Tingley, Martin P. and Peter Huybers. Heterogeneous warming of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures over the last 1200 years. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2015.

Tingley, Martin P. and Benjamin Shaby. Comments on “Comparing and Selecting Spatial Predictors Using Local Criteria.” TEST, 2015.

Barboza, Luis, Bo Li, Martin P. Tingley and Frederi Viens. Reconstructing past temperatures from natural proxies and estimated climate forcings using short- and long-memory models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 2014.

Tingley, Martin P., Alexander R. Stine  and Peter Huybers. Temperature reconstructions from tree-ring densities overestimate volcanic cooling. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014.

Huybers, Peter, Andrew Rhines, Karen A. McKinnon and Martin P. Tingley.  U.S. daily temperatures: the meaning of extremes in the context of non-normality. Journal of Climate, 2014

Tolwinski-Ward,  S. E., M. P. Tingley, M. N. Evans, M. K. Hughes and D. W. Nychka. Probabilistic reconstructions of local temperature and soil moisture from tree-ring data with potentially time-varying climatic response. Climate Dynamics, 2015.

Tierney, Jessica E. and Martin P. Tingley. A Bayesian, spatially-varying calibration model for the TEX86 proxy. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta. 2014. (Note: Authors listed alphabetically and as equal contributors.)

Tingley, Martin P. and Peter Huybers. Arctic temperature extremes over the last 600 years. Nature, 2013. Additional supplemental files are available at NOAA Paleoclimatology.

Hanhijarvi, Sami, Martin P. Tingley and Atte Korhola. Pairwise Comparisons to Reconstruct Mean Temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region Over the Last 2000 Years. Climate Dynamics, 2013. Supplement.

Mannshardt, Elizabeth, Peter F. Craigmile, and Martin P. Tingley. Statistical modeling of extreme value behavior in North American tree-ring density series. Climatic Change, 2013. Supplement.

Tingley, Martin P. and Bo Li. Comments on “Reconstructing the NH mean temperature: Can underestimation of trends and variability be avoided?” Journal of Climate, 2012.

Tingley, Martin P., Peter F. Craigmile, Murali Haran, Bo Li, Elizabeth Mannshardt-Shamseldin and Bala Rajaratnam. Piecing together the past: Statistical insights into paleoclimatic reconstructions. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2012. An earlier version is available as Technical Report No. 2010-09, Department of Statistics, Stanford University.

Tingley, Martin P. A Bayesian ANOVA scheme for calculating climate anomalies, with applications to the instrumental temperature record. Journal of Climate, 2012. Relevant code and data can be found here.

Tingley, Martin P. Spurious predictions with random time series: The Lasso in the context of paleoclimatic reconstructions. A Discussion of “A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?” by Blakeley B. McShane and Abraham J. Wyner. Annals of Applied Statistics, 2011. A more detailed version can be found here.

Cressie, Noel and Martin P. Tingley. Comment on “The Value of Multiproxy Reconstruction of Past Climate” by Bo Li, Douglas W. Nychka, and Caspar Ammann. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2010, and Department of Statistics Technical Report No. 838, The Ohio State University.

Tingley, Martin P. and Peter Huybers. A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part 1: Development and applications to paleoclimate reconstruction problems. Journal of Climate, 2010. A package of Matlab files that implements the method can be found here.

Tingley, Martin P. and Peter Huybers. A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part 2: Comparison with the Regularized Expectation-Maximization Algorithm. Journal of Climate, 2010.

Wunch, Debra, Martin P. Tingley, Theodore G. Shepherd, James R. Drummond,G.W.K. Moore and Kimberly Strong. Climatology and Predictability of the Late Summer Stratospheric Zonal Wind Turnaround over Vanscoy, Saskatchewan. Atmospheres and Oceans, 2005.